COLD LAKE – Cold Lake may have fewer than 20,000 residents within its municipal boundaries, but a new retail study suggests businesses looking only at the city’s population are missing the bigger picture.

A retail gap analysis presented to Cold Lake City Council on Aug. 11 estimates the city’s primary retail trade area at roughly 43,000 people, with a broader market reaching just under 60,000 when communities that make up Cold Lake’s secondary trade area are included.

That number matters because population thresholds are often one of the first things major retailers look at when deciding where to open their next location.

FBM Architecture partner and planning lead Kieron Hunt presented the findings following approximately seven months of work commissioned by the City to better understand what Cold Lake already has, what residents are leaving town to buy and which businesses could realistically be recruited.

Hunt said retailers often don’t conduct a detailed analysis of a community unless something has already caught their attention.

“They might look simply at what the city is,” Hunt told council, explaining the study gives Cold Lake information it can take directly to prospective retailers rather than waiting for them to discover the larger regional market themselves.

“This process allows you to sort of jump ahead of the queue.”

Cold Lake’s real shopping population

FBM estimates Cold Lake’s primary trade area currently contains approximately 43,000 residents and could grow beyond 47,000 by 2035.

That primary trade area represents the region from which Cold Lake businesses can reasonably expect to generate the majority of their regular customers.

When the study adds secondary markets — including customers who may travel from areas such as Meadow Lake and Lac La Biche — Cold Lake’s potential retail market climbs to just under 60,000 people.

The presence of 4 Wing Cold Lake also strengthens the city’s regional draw.

Hunt said that puts Cold Lake into what he described as the 50,000-plus tier used by some retailers when evaluating potential markets.

“That’s a good figure to work with when having conversations,” he said.

The primary trade area is also relatively young, with an average age of about 34.7 years, along with comparatively strong household incomes.

Cold Lakers had plenty to say about shopping

The study wasn’t based on demographic data alone.

FBM conducted a community shopping survey between February and March that attracted 952 responses.

Hunt said it was the largest response his firm had received for a similar survey in the past three years — even beating a survey conducted in Airdrie, a city several times larger than Cold Lake.

“I applaud the community on the response rate that we got for the survey,” Hunt said.

About 76 percent of respondents were from Cold Lake, with another 20 percent from the M.D. of Bonnyville and the remainder spread throughout the region.

The results also showed people are already shopping locally.

About 40 percent of respondents said they shop in Cold Lake daily, while another 55 percent shop locally weekly.

When it comes to purchases that could draw shoppers out of the community, Edmonton remains Cold Lake’s biggest competitor.

Approximately 40 percent indicated they head to Edmonton, while 30 percent stay in Cold Lake — a result Hunt described as healthy given Edmonton’s size and retail selection.

Online shopping is another competitor, particularly for fashion, home and sporting goods. The survey indicated roughly one-third of fashion spending is happening online.

So, what stores could Cold Lake actually get?

And now for the question everyone asks.

No, the study doesn’t see a Costco coming to Cold Lake.

Hunt said Costco comes up in virtually every community survey his company conducts, but with a new location being developed in Lloydminster, he doesn’t see another one coming to Cold Lake.

“I don’t want to disappoint you, but you won’t be getting Costco,” Hunt told council.

But he quickly followed that with a more encouraging assessment.

“There won’t be a Costco, but that’s not a bad thing.”

Instead, Hunt said Cold Lake’s market could create an opportunity for another larger grocery operator, mentioning possibilities such as a Real Canadian Superstore or wholesale-style grocery retailer.

FBM also identified other brands that could fit Cold Lake’s market and trade-area demographics.

Some would likely require mall space, creating potential recruitment opportunities for Tri-City Mall, while others could look for standalone locations or space along the Highway 28 corridor.

Hunt specifically identified FreshCo as one of the opportunities FBM sees for the community. The study also looked at retailers such as Old Navy, although Hunt cautioned that some brands may be longer-term prospects rather than immediate opportunities.

Old Navy, for example, only recently entered Lloydminster after what Hunt described as a lengthy process.

The point of the report isn’t to promise any particular chain is coming to Cold Lake. Instead, it gives the City’s economic development team a targeted list of businesses whose typical market requirements more closely match what Cold Lake can offer.

Residents say something is missing

The survey also asked residents what prevents them from shopping more frequently in Cold Lake and in specific areas such as downtown.

Two of the biggest answers were straightforward: missing goods and services and missing retailers.

Safety also appeared as a concern, although Hunt cautioned that “feeling unsafe” covered more than crime. Responses included personal safety, theft and concerns about safely crossing streets.

Parking was another concern, particularly downtown.

Hunt said that result isn’t unusual in smaller communities and suggested the perception of inadequate parking can sometimes be stronger than the actual shortage.

Downtown, Lakeshore and Highway 28 all have a role

Rather than trying to make every commercial area of Cold Lake the same, the study recommends strengthening the different roles they already play.

Hunt pointed to Lakeshore as an area with strong placemaking potential, saying there is an opportunity to create something distinct from both downtown and the city’s highway commercial areas.

“If you can stitch together the fabric of Lakeshore, I think you can have something really special,” he said.

The Highway 28 corridor, meanwhile, is expected to remain attractive to national brands looking for existing vacancies or new commercial development.

FBM’s recommendation is for Cold Lake to actively “curate” its retail mix — identifying businesses that fill genuine gaps rather than simply waiting to see who arrives.

The City intends to use the completed analysis as an economic development tool when meeting retailers, franchises, developers and investors.

For Cold Lake, one of the biggest selling points may now be a relatively simple one: don’t count the market by the population written on the city limits sign.