Will Canada Qualify for Copa America?

The 2024 slate of international play matches is stacked as teams prepare for the 2026 World Cup. Canada is no different, looking for another World Cup appearance with 2022’s surprising run. The squad equaled its best finish in World Cup play, reaching the group stage but finishing fourth in a brutal group. Next up for the Canadians is a date with the Copa America championship in 2024, but they will still need to be guaranteed they will qualify. This article will consider Canada’s outlook for Copa America and what must happen for them to prepare. 

 

Canada’s History at Copa America

 

Canada has a complicated history at Copa America. They have attempted to qualify just once, in 2016. They were first invited in 2001 thanks to their recent CONCACAF championship but withdrew thanks to hosting issues. The tournament was initially canceled due to potential security threats in the host country, Columbia, causing Canada to end its training camp and send players back to their club teams. 

 

However, in July of 2001, the CONMEBOL decided to go on with the tournament as scheduled, with Canada withdrawing. 

In their only attempt to qualify in 2016, Canada failed, ending with two draws and a loss, failing to score a goal across their three qualifying matches. Despite their recent trip to the World Cup, the Canadians are not heavily favored in the latest Copa Americas odds because of their current struggles. 

 

A Struggling 2024 Team Limps Into Qualifying Play

 

With Canada receiving an automatic 2026 World Cup bid as a co-host, many of the team’s best players decided not to attend the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup, causing Canada to fall in the quarterfinals. Following the championships, head coach and leader of the 2022 World Cup squad, John Herdman, publicly criticized Canadian soccer for a lack of resources and funding. Just a few months later, Herdman announced his departure from the Canadian Men’s National Team after five years to take a job as the head coach of Toronto FC of Major League Soccer. 

 

Image credit: Dave Goudreau via Unsplash

 

In the interim, Canada called upon Mauro Biello to take the team to the CONCACAF Nations League A semifinals. With a victory in a two-legged aggregate match against Jamaica, Canada would secure an automatic qualification for Copa America. The game started well enough, as Canada took a 2–1 win over Jamaica in the road leg thanks to a late goal from Stephen Eustaquio. This meant that Canada needed just a draw to advance to Copa America. Leading 1–0 at the half, Biello’s squad collapsed, giving up goals in the 62nd and 66th minute to Shamar Nicholson before a 78th-minute penalty kick for Bobby De Cordova-Reid sealed a 3–2 Jamaican win. The loss brought on significant criticisms of both the organization and Biello, with The Athletic calling it a “humiliating loss.” As a result, Canada’s only path to Copa America rests in a single match against Trinidad and Tobago. 

 

Previewing Canada’s Play-In Match Against Trinidad and Tobago

 

The loss to Jamaica forced Canada into the Copa America Play-In series on March 23, where they will need a win to get into Copa America for the first time in the program’s history. They are set to take on Trinidad and Tobago, a program known for their tendency to play spoiler. 

 

In 2018, Trinidad and Tobago defeated the heavily favored United States Men’s National Team, a loss that cost them their place in the World Cup for the first time since 1986. Needing just a draw to virtually assure a World Cup appearance, a United States team with an interim head coach should have been able to muster even that. 

 

There are some similarities here. Canada enters the match with an interim head coach under heavy criticism. However, Canada won’t be quite the favorite that the United States was. The Soca Warriors are coming off a thrilling 2–1 win over the United States and have just one loss in CONCACAF Nations League play. They are second in the Group A1 table. 

 

 

Image credit: Peter Glaser via Unsplash

 

What Happens If They Qualify?

 

If Canada wins the match, it would mean the first Copa America qualification in the nation’s history and a strong start towards World Cup play. However, a loss would be devastating for an already reeling Canadian National Team. As the team has already qualified for the World Cup, there might be a different urgency in the locker room than we would expect just two years out from the World Cup. 

 

Despite that, these matches are critical for seeding, as a co-host country has an excellent opportunity to play in a favorable group. Further, the program’s stability could be at stake, with the head coaching position and the commitment to funding and resources in question. 

 

What Is Next for the Canada Men’s National Team?

 

Should Canada defeat Trinidad and Tobago as expected, they would enter the draw for tournament seeding. However, since they are a play-in contender, they would start in the lowest pot, meaning they would play the most difficult teams. Canada needs to take care of business against Trinidad and Tobago before they think about seeding.